Wednesday, December 7, 2022
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New China Trade 2022: Overcoming 2021 in Numbers

China trade 2022—In 2021, China’s trade surplus was $676.2 billion, up 29% over the previous year. Trade surpluses peaked in December at $94.5 billion, the most ever.

In 2021, ASEAN overtook the EU as China’s top trading partner, followed by the United States. Although ASEAN’s domestic demand is expanding, this illustrates that Asia is becoming a vital part of the industrial supply chain.

Exports of steel grew the highest, by 80%, while electronics, which is the largest in value, developed by a little more than 30% in comparison. Exports surged by about 77 percent compared to imports of coal, which increased by 20 percent.

These findings demonstrate that China is still a key electronics manufacturing country, and China is still an important country.

Rising Demand for China Trade 2022

As the global economy grows more robust, we expect more people to buy items. China’s international commerce is likely to increase in 2022 as a result. Manufacturers and exporters of a wide range of things, from refrigerators to automobiles, will have to contend with continued shortages of semiconductors. There is no quick fix for this. As a result, these products’ quality or functionality will have to be reduced, or the costs would have to rise.

During the year 2021, China saw a significant increase in its coal imports, and this might last until 2022, when China’s solar and wind power capacity is bolstered to replace coal. However, keep in mind that China’s plan calls for a peak in carbon emissions in 2030, followed by a reduction to zero carbon emissions by 2060 at the latest. As China begins to shut down dirty coal processing facilities, we may witness a further increase in the volume of coal imports into China before 2030.

Impact of Covid to China Trade 2022

We’ve already seen the ramifications that getting sick at the port may have on daily operations. Even in 2022, more incredible upheaval isn’t out of the question. But this isn’t simply a problem in China; it’s a global one. Shipping costs grow when the freight line is disrupted, even for a short period.

There is a possibility that this could lead to an increase in prices. However, we don’t expect this to hurt Trade in 2022. The central bank has stated that the yuan exchange rate should remain stable in 2022, so exporters may not have to worry about that risk.

Exporters will benefit from this, lowering the risk and cost of hedging. By the end of 2022, we expect the USD/CNY will reach a level of 6.5.

The Outlook on China Trade 2022

After a record-breaking year for China’s exporters, Beijing has cautioned that the country’s exporters face more significant downside risks in 2022, after the global expansion of Omicron.

A record $676.43 billion in trade surplus with the rest of the world was reported by Chinese customs on Friday, the highest since records began in 1950. Despite political tensions with the United States and global supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, the Chinese trade surplus rose 29 percent in 2021 from a year earlier to US$676.43 billion.

A record US$396.58 billion trade surplus with the United States was achieved in 2021, as the world’s two most significant economies continue to compete.

Although China’s trade deficit with Australia increased by 60.4% last year as imports climbed faster than exports, diplomatic frictions over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang did not stop China from recording a 57.4% increase in its annual trade surplus with the European Union last year.

According to HSBC analyst Erin Xin for China Trade 2022, “as other markets face lower production as a result of more [Omicron] instances,” Chinese manufacturers can undoubtedly maintain their global market share. For all of 2021, China’s exports grew 29.9 percent, year on year, while imports grew by 30.1 percent, the official data shows. Exports climbed by 20.9% in December, while imports grew by 19.5%, both slower than in November.

With global demand for pandemic-related items expected to remain strong, Xin predicted that China’s exports would continue to benefit in the foreseeable future. Senior China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics agrees that social-distancing efforts in reaction to Omicron have delayed a decline in demand from outside China.

China’s electronic shipments rose 18.1% year-on-year in September, thanks to the reimposition of some restrictions and a boost in people staying at home during the Omicron storm.

Benefits of the Pandemic to China Trade 2022

Beijing has consistently stated that the benefits of pandemic-related overseas orders are unlikely to last long.. Trade is becoming more expensive and complex due to rising raw material prices, high shipping charges, and long port congestions worldwide.

“Trade is confronting increased levels of uncertainty, instability, and imbalance in the year ahead.” Customs spokesperson Li Kuiwen said the Chinese economy suffers threefold pressures, including a contraction in demand, supply shocks, and poorer expectations, in China trade 2022.

According to Lu Ting, Nomura’s Chief China Economist, factors like a high comparison base with 2021; a shift in foreign consumption from durable goods to services as more countries opt to “live with Covid,”; and a natural drop in durable goods demand are all contributing to China’s real export growth this year.

Analysts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York expect Beijing to scale up export-stabilization efforts by preventing the RMB from appreciating further. With new export orders being weak and foreign demand growth decreasing, we expect export momentum to diminish in 2022,” Oxford Economics’ Asia economics head Louis Kujis said.

At the same time as port operations are nearing capacity and coronavirus cases are continuing to crop up in port towns, Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics predicted that this year’s China trade 2022 increase in export volumes will be restricted.

There was a 5.4 percent decrease in crude oil imports but a 44.2 percent increase in value. Soybean imports dropped 3.8% to 96.52 million metric tons last year, but their worth jumped 35.4% to US$53.54 billion.

In the meantime, China’s coal imports increased by 6.6% in volume and by 76.9% in value.

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